On 9 June, 48.7 million people went to the polls to elect 81 French MEPs to the European Parliament. Marked by a rise in voter turnout, these elections were the scene of a very active campaign in the traditional media and on social networks.
Social networks or social networking?
If we often talk about the representation and speaking time of election candidates in the traditional media, radio, television and the written press, what about their visibility online, where the election campaign was also very active, and often in a more tumultuous atmosphere.
To answer this first question, we need to understand that for political or electoral discussions, X (formerly Twitter) remains the undisputed king of social networks. Although the platform has fewer French users than Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok or even LinkedIn, it accounted for almost 98% of all posts relating to the European elections (based on data analysed from 2 to 9 June on the Visibrain platform). When we talk about electoral discussions on social networks, we are therefore talking more about discussions on X.
X representative of the French electoral reality?
Looking at the discussions on X, we have to admit that the mentions of candidates and their parties do not entirely correspond to electoral reality.
While it should be remembered that mention does not mean endorsement, if we compare the publications relating to the main list leaders, we observe an over-representation of Jordan Bardella, who is cited two to three times more than the other candidates. However, if in addition to the mentions of these political figures, we look at those of their respective parties, then a significant change takes place. We see that Manon Aubry and LFI are the most cited in the week before the elections, as well as on election day itself, until the moment the results are announced, when the very large number of mentions of the RN and Jordan Bardella take over. In total, therefore, using this method, we see a face-off between these two parties: 1.1 million mentions for the RN and Jordan Bardella, compared with 975,000 mentions for LFI and Manon Aubry, well ahead of the other parties and their heads of list (between 250,000 and 330,000 publications concerning them). In this respect, X/Twitter seems to be a hemicycle where the voices of the most left-wing and right-wing benches are amplified.
Source : Talkwalker from 2 to 9 June
Demographics, an explanatory factor for such disparity?
On the X social network, while the data and statistics diverge somewhat, we can nevertheless say that more than 50% of active users are in the 18 to 34 age bracket, around 20% between 35 and 44, with the remainder spread with lower rates among the over 45s and under 18s.
With regard to the sociology of the European elections, the data published the day after the results by Ipsos show that the RN vote is dominant across all age groups, ranging from 25% to 40%. LFI, meanwhile, leads only among 18-24 year-olds, with 33% of votes cast, and comes second among 25-34 year-olds with almost 20%.
Comparative analysis by age group could therefore be a factor in explaining the increased representation of publications relating to these two parties on X.
Which electoral themes have won the support of X users?
By comparing the themes that stand out most on social networks, with those considered by polls to be the most important to voters, we arrive at a second interesting finding.
Another Ipsos survey for the elections, carried out in June, lists these issues. Against a backdrop marked by inflation, purchasing power topped the list of concerns (45%), just ahead of immigration (43%) and far ahead of environmental protection (27%) and the health system (26%). The war in Ukraine (19%) and the situation in Gaza (6%) are less important in the eyes of the French. However, these results mask major disparities between political and demographic trends. For example, the situation in Gaza is chosen as one of the main factors influencing the vote by 22% of 18-24 year olds, and by 36% of LFI voters.
This disparity is again apparent when we analyse the impact on social networks. Publications on the theme of immigration were far more popular than those on purchasing power, inflation or the environment (3 to 4 times more so in the period from 2 to 9 June). Finally, the situation in Gaza, although much lower down the list, outclasses immigration with two and a half times as many publications, in the run-up to the European elections.
Associated with these two key themes, it is easy to find in users’ biographies or in the associated hashtags mentions of political parties and candidates claiming to be concerned with these issues, showing once again the ability of these two camps to impose their subjects online.
Source : Talkwalker from 3 to 12 June
While there is a wide diversity of profiles on X/Twitter, the quantitative study shows that the debate and discussion seems to be polarised predominantly towards the ‘extremes’. Admittedly, this reflects a fairly young segment of the population, often not inclined to moderate ideas and discourse, but it is relatively out of step with the electorate as a whole.
By Matthieu Levray
